# 中性子星をパルサーとして見る確率はどのくらいですか？

パルサーは、回転軸と整列していない電磁放射のビームを放出する中性子星です。地球がその放射ビームを通過すると、パルサーが見えます。パルサーは、ビームが観測者の視線を横切る場合にのみ観測可能です。そうでなければ、通常の中性子星しか見ることができません。

ランダムな方向のパルサーの場合、地球からのビームを見る確率はどのくらいですか？100のパルサーのうち、地球を横切るビームを持つのはいくつですか？

Out of 100 pulsars, how many will have a beam that crosses the Earth?

"The beaming fraction f , that is the mean value of the fraction of observable pulsars or the mean probability of observing a normal pulsar, is 0.124 ± 0.004." M. Kolonko et al.: On the pulse-width statistics in radio pulsars

The probability of seeing pulsed emission from a neutron star is simply the fraction of the sky covered by the beam, i.e. the beam solid angle divided by $$4\pi$$ steradians.

The angle swept out on the sky by a pulsar with an emission cone of width $$\rho$$ turns out to be

$$\zeta=4\pi\sin^2\left(\frac{\rho}{2}\right)$$ covering a fraction of the sky $$f=\frac{\zeta}{4\pi}=\sin^2\left(\frac{\rho}{2}\right)$$ The opening angle $$\rho$$ can often be deduced from the pulsar's period. Many long-period pulsars obey the power-law model $$\rho\propto P^{-1/2}$$; the proportionality constant is sometimes described piecewise. However, millisecond pulsars tend to deviate downwards from the $$P^{-1/2}$$ relation by a factor of a few, as shown in Fig. 12 of Kramer et al. (1998): If you wanted to choose a representative opening angle to determine the probability that a particular pulsar will sweep its beam across Earth, it might be best to pick an angle calculated from the pulsar's period. On the other hand, if you care about a population of pulsars with a random period distribution, you would be better off simply looking up a mean value of $$\rho$$. Picking $$\rho=40^{\circ}$$, for example, gives $$f\approx0.12$$, as tuomas quoted in their answer, which is a reasonable value.

The other answers cover the geometric part, but that only tells you what fraction of pulsars are seen as such from Earth. The other issue is what fraction of neutron stars are pulsars at all. If they don't pulse, and they don't do something else conspicuous like accrete from a binary companion, neutron stars are very difficult to find. A common rough estimate is that only 1% of neutron stars in our galactic neighborhood are detectable, but this is very uncertain.